1 · Create a falsifiable prediction
A good prediction has one clear outcome. "BTC closes above $100k on Mar 31" is falsifiable. "BTC will probably moon someday" is not.
2 · Set confidence & stake
Confidence runs 1–100 and sets your payout multiplier: bold low-confidence calls pay far more if they land than safe near-certain ones. Staking deducts points immediately.
3 · Resolve honestly
When the resolution date passes (or truth arrives early), mark the outcome YES or NO yourself. Correct calls return your stake plus winnings; wrong calls forfeit the stake.
4 · Track accuracy & rank up
Every resolution feeds your accuracy record and streak. The leaderboard ranks by balance, but accuracy is what earns respect.